Ceuta inquiry: new figures emerge from the investigation into July’s events

New reporting on November 6 has brought further attention to the judicial investigation into the events of July 30 and 31, 2026, in Ceuta. According to EFE, a Guardia Civil report estimates that approximately 88,146 people may have returned to Morocco. The figure is presented as an estimate, rather than a final, individually verified count.

Europa Press says the report, dated October 27, was sent to the judge overseeing the investigation. The agency reports that it also records 90 deaths confirmed by the Guardia Civil and 862 rescues in Spanish waters. MMNEWS has not independently examined the full report.

The distinction matters: this is a development in an existing investigation, not a report of a new incident at the border.

The inquiry is also examining what information reached authorities and when. On October 27, Judge María Tardón requested the declassification of documents, including intelligence reports, according to public broadcaster RTVE, which says it consulted the judicial order. The request also sought details about the recipients and delivery dates of certain communications.

Collecting such evidence does not amount to a final finding of wrongdoing. Responsibility must be assessed through the judicial process.

The figures themselves require careful interpretation. Arrivals, returns, rescues and deaths describe different categories. Comparing them meaningfully requires clear information about the reporting periods and counting methods. Numerical discrepancies deserve scrutiny, but they do not explain themselves.

For Moroccan families and diaspora readers, another limitation is equally important. The material reviewed does not allow MMNEWS to establish the victims’ individual identities or confirm whether any were Moroccan residents abroad. Coming from Morocco does not, by itself, establish diaspora status.

Further coverage should focus on verified identification, the circumstances surrounding deaths and documented progress in the investigation. Unauthenticated lists or photographs should not be treated as evidence.

The full report, if made publicly available, and subsequent judicial communications will be important to assessing these new figures. Until then, they remain attributed information within an ongoing inquiry.